Scottish Premiership 2024-25: Pre-Split and Post-Split Results Compared

The official 33-round plus five-round format

Two stages, different match bases

The official 2024-25 format separates the season into 33 rounds before the split and five rounds after it. This comparison therefore treats the 33-round phase as pre-split and the five-round phase as post-split.

The stages do not contain the same number of completed matches. There are 198 in the pre-split set and 30 in the post-split set. That difference is central to the analysis: raw totals must be read alongside per-match rates and event percentages.

Headline comparison: goals and result types

Put totals beside rates

The clearest comparison keeps every numerator and denominator visible. The 584 pre-split goals and 91 post-split goals are totals from stages with different coverage, so goals per match provides the more direct rate comparison.

On the reported average, the post-split stage had the higher scoring rate, even with the smaller match base. The draw share was also higher post-split. One-goal decisions went the other way: 38.9% before the split compared with 33.3% after it. The percentages are shown to one decimal place and the goal rates to three decimal places.

Goal totals and round-level extremes

Pre-split extremes

At round level, the pre-split high was round 17 with 26 goals, while the low was round 32 with nine goals. These two points show the reported range of round totals within the longer stage, but they do not replace the aggregate of 584 goals across 198 completed matches.

Post-split high

The post-split high came in round four, which produced 22 goals. That round-level figure sits alongside the post-split total of 91 goals in 30 completed matches and the reported average of 3.033 goals per match.

Round totals are useful descriptive context for the stage averages. They identify the reported highs and low, but they do not explain why the two stages produced different per-match figures.

How the result profile changed

Draws: a higher percentage after the split

There were 41 draws in the 198 pre-split matches, a rate of 20.7%. The post-split stage contained seven draws in 30 matches, or 23.3%. The pre-split count is larger, but its draw percentage is lower once the different match bases are taken into account.

One-goal decisions and nil-nil results

One-goal decisions show the opposite rate pattern. They accounted for 77 of 198 pre-split matches (38.9%), compared with 10 of 30 post-split matches (33.3%). On this measure, a one-goal decision was a smaller share of the completed post-split set.

Nil-nil results were recorded 10 times before the split, or 10 of 198 completed matches. There were no nil-nil results in the post-split set: 0 of 30. That is a finding about these two defined stages and their stated coverage.

Method and coverage

Inclusions and exclusions

The primary comparison uses completed matches from the official pre-split and post-split stages of the 2024-25 competition. Six rows labelled “Relegation Round” were excluded from the primary comparison. The reported totals therefore remain tied to 198 completed pre-split matches and 30 completed post-split matches.

Calculation convention

Goals per match are calculated as total goals divided by completed matches: 584 ÷ 198 before the split and 91 ÷ 30 after it. Draw and one-goal percentages use the corresponding event count divided by the same stage denominator. The displayed goal rates retain three decimal places, while the displayed percentages retain one decimal place.

Context boundaries

Final standings and seven-goal matches are descriptive context only. They do not replace the stage aggregates, add to the completed-match denominators or provide a basis for a causal explanation.

Limitations and interpretation

Unequal denominators remain central

The main coverage warning is the difference between 198 completed pre-split matches and 30 completed post-split matches. Raw totals such as 584 versus 91 goals, 41 versus seven draws and 77 versus 10 one-goal decisions do not represent equal amounts of match coverage. Per-match rates and percentages make the stage contrast clearer, but they do not make the stages equal in size.

Association is not causation

The data show a descriptive association between stage and the observed figures: the post-split rate of 3.033 goals per match was higher, its draw percentage was 23.3% rather than 20.7%, its one-goal-decision percentage was 33.3% rather than 38.9%, and it had 0 of 30 nil-nil results compared with 10 of 198 before the split.

A difference that coincides with the split is not proof that the split caused it. These figures do not establish a causal mechanism or identify a reason for the changes. The evidence supports a bounded conclusion about two completed-match groups, not a causal claim.

Five questions about the comparison

What are the two stages in this comparison?

The official structure is a 33-round stage before the split followed by a five-round stage after it. Those are treated as the pre-split and post-split stages.

How many completed matches are counted?

The comparison contains 198 completed pre-split matches and 30 completed post-split matches. Six rows labelled “Relegation Round” are excluded from the primary comparison.

Which stage had more goals per match?

The post-split stage had the higher reported rate: 3.033 goals per match from 91 ÷ 30, compared with 2.949 from 584 ÷ 198 before the split.

How did draws, one-goal decisions and nil-nil results differ?

Draws were 41 of 198 (20.7%) before the split and seven of 30 (23.3%) after it. One-goal decisions were 77 of 198 (38.9%) and 10 of 30 (33.3%), respectively. Nil-nil results were 10 of 198 before the split and 0 of 30 after it.

Do these numbers prove that the split caused the differences?

No. They are descriptive comparisons of two completed-match groups with unequal denominators. They show differences in goal rates and result shares, but they do not establish causation.