The headline answer
Across the eight named team entries, the observed record is 22 held leads from 24 lead episodes. That produces a hold rate of 91.7%, with the rate rounded to one decimal place. The same entries contain two leads that were not held and zero recorded overturns.
Seven of the eight teams held every lead shown for them. Spain did so in four episodes, while USA, France and Norway each did so in three. Mexico, Brazil and the Netherlands each held two. Argentina is the only team in the listed comparison below a perfect rate, holding three of five.
This is a description of lead protection after half-time, not a prediction of which team will win the World Cup 2026. The numbers should be read with their episode counts attached.
Team-by-team record
The table separates leads held, leads not held and overturns. Keeping those categories visible matters: a lead can fail to remain in the held category without the separately reported overturned field recording an event.
| Team | Leads | Held | Not held | Overturned | Held rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Argentina | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60.0% |
| USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Norway | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Mexico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Brazil | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Netherlands | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
Argentina has the largest lead-episode denominator among the eight named teams, with five. Spain follows with four, and five teams are listed with three or fewer episodes. That difference in sample size is important when comparing a 3-from-5 record with a 2-from-2 or 3-from-3 record.
The aggregate across listed teams
Adding the eight rows gives 24 lead episodes. Of those, 22 were held and two were not held. The overturned total is zero. The resulting 91.7% figure is therefore an aggregate for the eight named rows only.
| Scope | Leads | Held | Not held | Overturned | Held rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eight named teams | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 91.7% |
The 104 completed matches are the coverage scope, but they are not the denominator for this rate. The denominator is the 24 recorded lead episodes in the eight rows shown here. This distinction prevents the protection rate from being mistaken for the percentage of all matches in which a team held a half-time lead.
Home and away context
A home-away aggregate is not reported in the supplied team figures. There is no home or away denominator, lead count or hold count from which to calculate a venue split without adding unsupported numbers.
| Venue grouping | Leads | Held | Not held | Overturned | Held rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | — | — | Not reported |
| Away | — | — | — | — | Not reported |
Accordingly, the observed comparison is combined rather than home-specific or away-specific. No claim about a venue effect can be made from these figures.
Method and coverage
What is counted
The analysis covers 104 completed matches and uses half-time and full-time scores. The unit is a team lead episode: a team is counted when it had the relevant lead at half-time, and the later full-time state determines whether that lead was held or not held. Team totals are therefore episode counts, not simply a count of matches or teams.
How the rates are calculated
For each named team, the held rate is calculated as held leads divided by total leads. Spain, for example, is recorded as 4 held from 4 leads, while Argentina is recorded as 3 from 5. The aggregate rate is calculated in the same way: 22 held divided by 24 leads, or 91.7% when rounded to one decimal place.
Held, not held and overturned are retained as separately reported measures. The listed rows show two not-held episodes, both in Argentina's row, and zero overturns in every row.
Limitations and interpretation
The team table is limited to the eight named rows available for this comparison; it is not a complete team ranking. The wider scope is 104 completed matches, but the figures provided here do not include the values for every additional team row. The 22-from-24 aggregate must therefore not be presented as a tournament-wide protection rate.
The absence of a home-away split also limits the comparison. Likewise, the figures contain no basis for adding goals scored, goals conceded, match-level context or a forecast. The analysis shows what was observed after the listed half-time leads; it does not explain why a lead was held or not held.
Most importantly, a descriptive relationship between a team and its observed hold rate is not proof of causation. A perfect rate in a small set of episodes does not establish a causal team quality, tactical reason or future result. The denominators should remain alongside every comparison.
Frequently asked questions
What is a first-half lead episode?
It is a match-state event in which a team had a lead at half-time and its full-time outcome was then assessed. It is not the same as counting all matches or creating a current standings table.
How is the hold rate calculated?
The hold rate is held leads divided by total recorded leads. For the eight named teams combined, that is 22 held from 24 leads, or 91.7% rounded to one decimal place.
Which listed team had the most lead episodes?
Argentina had the most among the eight named teams, with five. It held three and did not hold two, producing a 60.0% held rate.
Were any of the listed leads overturned?
No. The overturned count is zero for every named team row. The two not-held episodes recorded in the table are shown separately from the overturned measure.
Does this identify who will win the World Cup 2026?
No. These are observed half-time and full-time lead outcomes from completed matches. They are not a predictive model and do not establish causation or future results.